Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,381$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(9.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,442.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56,442.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,467$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,151.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,151.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,027$ on 2020-05-31

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,479$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,646.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(228,646.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,127$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(6.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,208.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,208.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,976$ on 2020-05-31

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $276,156$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,122.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(277,122.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38,571$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(4.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,259.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(37,259.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $236,395$ on 2020-05-31

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,997$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(4.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,667.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(226,667.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,415$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(5.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,347.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(32,347.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,075$ on 2020-05-31

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $189,009$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(3.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,322.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(181,322.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,805$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,782.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,782.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,731$ on 2020-05-31

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,542$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(2.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,460.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,460.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,395$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(458 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,338.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,338.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,176$ on 2020-05-31

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,645$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(8.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,083.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(45,083.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,975$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,835.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,835.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,492$ on 2020-05-31

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,990$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,552.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(24,552.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,652$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,614.7}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,614.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,249$ on 2020-05-31

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 97%
Andorra recovered 96%
Austria recovered 95%
Croatia recovered 94%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Estonia recovered 87%
Germany recovered 87%
Denmark recovered 81%
Malta recovered 79%
Lithuania recovered 65%
Italy recovered 61%
Czechia recovered 56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 51%
San Marino recovered 43%
Serbia recovered 43%
Hungary recovered 41%
Romania recovered 39%
Bulgaria recovered 14%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,473$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(520 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,458.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,458.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(23.7 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(105.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-31

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,018$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,858.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,858.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(27.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(107.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-05-31

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $764$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(214 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{753.8}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(753.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(16.9 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19$ on 2020-05-31

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,731$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,810.8}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,810.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $668$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(150 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{638.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(638.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $470$ on 2020-05-31