Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $58,381$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(9.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,442.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56,442.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,467$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,151.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,151.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,027$ on 2020-05-31
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $239,479$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,646.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(228,646.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,127$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(6.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,208.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,208.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $61,976$ on 2020-05-31
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $276,156$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,122.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(277,122.0\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $38,571$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(4.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,259.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(37,259.9\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $236,395$ on 2020-05-31
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $232,997$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(4.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,667.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(226,667.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,415$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(5.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,347.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(32,347.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,075$ on 2020-05-31
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $189,009$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(3.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,322.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(181,322.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,805$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,782.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,782.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $91,731$ on 2020-05-31
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $37,542$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(2.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,460.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,460.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,395$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(458 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,338.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,338.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,176$ on 2020-05-31
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $46,645$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(8.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,083.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(45,083.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,975$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,835.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,835.0\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,492$ on 2020-05-31
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,990$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,552.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(24,552.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,652$ on 2020-05-31
Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,614.7}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,614.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,249$ on 2020-05-31